Letter to the editor: Fact checking economic statistics

Posted 10/16/24

To the editor,

A contribution to the "Letters" column in the Oct. 10 issue presented several comparisons of the US economy's performance under  recent administrations. The purpose here is …

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Letter to the editor: Fact checking economic statistics

Posted

To the editor,

A contribution to the "Letters" column in the Oct. 10 issue presented several comparisons of the US economy's performance under  recent administrations. The purpose here is to provide similar analysis using other economic measures to fact check various campaign claims.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the following are the Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results:

US GNP growth:

Under Trump:

2017 +2.15%

2018 +2.85%

2019 +2.18%

2020 -3.12%

Under Biden:

2021 +5.74%

2022 +8.13%

2023 +4.9%

2024 statistics are not yet available.

US GDP growth:

2016 +3.08% Obama (included for perspective) because the Trump campaign makes reference to the "mess" they inherited and the that the "economy was humming" , when he left office.

Under Trump the growth in GDP was

2017 +3.39%

2018 +3.29%

2019 +1.42%

2020  -2.86%

Under Biden the growth in GDP was:

2021 +13.69%

2022 +3.8%

2023 +6.3%

2024 is projected to be above 4%

Both the Trump and Biden administrations were impacted by a year of severe pandemic impact on economic activity.  The Trump administration enacted the bipartisan Payroll Protection Plan (PPP), advocated for tax cuts and a more passive approach to CDC anti-Covid policy while supporting accelerated Covid vaccine research.

The Biden administration pursued economic stimulus programs including the child tax credit, bi-partisan infrastructure spending, the inflation reduction act and an aggressive CDC-led approach to anti-Covid policy and an expedited covid testing and vaccination policy.  These policies impacted both national debt and inflation rates.

National Debt growth comparisons by administration; Sources Investopedia and the US Treasury:

There have been 21 presidential administrations in the past 100 years. National debt decreased twice as presented in raw numbers and percent of increase. Based on that, administrations are ranked from most to least in regard to created debt. Government spending programs do not always signal greater debt because some stimulus spending decreases unemployment. More workers means more tax revenue and less program use. Debt can also accrue from tax cuts that do not include reduced program spending. The most significant producer of debt, however, is war time spending.  

President Trump presided over $7.8 trillion of increased debt, a 33.1% increase over prior debt. This ranks his administration sixth highest among non-wartime presidents. It was driven largely by an "unfunded" tax cut and the emergency bi-partisan PPP due to the pandemic. 

President Biden presently ranks 13th with an 8.8% increase and $5.56 trillion increase driven by three large stimulus programs and emergency foreign aid to Ukraine. It is reduced somewhat by lower unemployment which increases tax revenue and is projected to decrease nearly $200 billion by enhanced delinquent tax collection.

Hopefully, this data helps provide factual clarity to the campaign claims and counterclaims we are currently being exposed to. 

John Welter

Viroqua

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gross National Product, Gross Domestic Product, economics, Biden, Trump, national debt, elections, voting, letters